Abstract:

Based on provincial⁃level administrative units, this study integrates key parameters such as regional consumption intensity, reserve capacity, and pipeline network connectivity to construct a regional crude oil supply model that encompasses the entire three⁃tier structure of "reserves⁃pipeline network⁃refining". The model simulates the supply⁃demand satisfaction rate of the system relying solely on domestic crude oil reserves under a complete import disruption scenario, covering the entire process of "resistance⁃exposure⁃recovery⁃collapse". Based on the simulation results, "supply⁃demand satisfaction rate⁃time" performance curves are generated, from which dynamic resilience indicators⁃including exposure duration, recovery speed, and minimum performance level⁃are extracted. Comparative analysis of the performance curves reveals significant provincial disparities in system resilience, manifesting as five distinct response patterns: stable operation, pulse recovery, exposure recovery, early stability followed by collapse, and short⁃term recovery followed by collapse. System resilience is primarily driven by the synergy between total consumption and reserve capacity, while the pipeline network plays a critical role in regulating crude oil redistribution during disruption events. The regional crude oil supply model effectively captures the dynamic evolution of system functionality under complete import disruption, overcoming the limitations of traditional static indicator⁃based assessments. The findings highlight pronounced regional disparities in China's crude oil supply system and provide actionable guidance for designing differentiated emergency response mechanisms, optimizing reserve deployment, and enhancing pipeline network structures, thereby improving national crude oil security.

Key words: Crude oil supply system, Resilience assessment, Performance curve, Reserve scheduling, Supply?demand satisfaction rate

摘要：

以省级行政单元为基础，综合区域消费强度、储备容量、管网连通性等关键参数，构建了覆盖“储备⁃管网⁃炼化”全链条的区域原油供应模型。在进口渠道完全中断的背景下，依据国内原油储备，对“抗扰⁃暴露⁃恢复⁃崩溃”全过程的供需满足率进行了模拟；基于模拟结果，绘制“供需满足率⁃时间”性能曲线，并从中提取了暴露期长度、恢复速度、最低性能水平等韧性指标；通过性能曲线对比分析，解析了全国各省原油供应系统韧性的区域差异特征。结果表明，全国各省原油供应系统韧性差异显著，主要呈现稳定运行型、脉冲恢复型、暴露恢复型、前期稳定⁃后期崩溃型、短期恢复⁃后期崩溃型等5种响应模式；系统韧性主要受原油消费总量与储备能力的协同影响，管网在原油再分配中发挥关键调节作用。区域原油供应模型能够有效反映系统在进口中断下的动态演化特征，突破传统静态指标体系的局限性，揭示我国原油供应系统的显著区域差异，为构建差异化应急响应机制、优化储备布局与管网结构提供指导性建议，对提升原油安全保障能力具有重要意义。

关键词: 原油供应系统, 韧性评估, 性能曲线, 储备调度, 供需满足率