Abstract: Each work area of the marine riser has its corresponding specific sea conditions, and the feasibility of macroevaluate is poor. For the feasibility of the whole problem of poor riser assessment, a method was proposed to segment the entire riser calculations, and assessment comprehensively. The marine riser common risk factors were collected to establish risk assessment model, and the gray correlation theory was used to assessment segmented riskof marine riser. According to the major risk factors associated with the risk of occurrence probability, for each segment, the invalidation problem and unreasonable weightswere calculated, the probability of failure of each section of the riser was further calculated by combining the weight with failure correlation coefficient of each section in a variety of major risk factors . This method of risk assessment of the marine riser provides a new way to strengthen the management and maintenance for marine riser of each section.

Key words: Gray theory, Correlation, Marine riser, Risk, Weights

摘要： 针对整根立管评定的可行性差的问题,提出了将整根立管进行分段计算、综合评定的方法。通过对海洋立管常见风险因素进行收集整理,建立风险评价模型,采用灰色关联度理论对海洋立管进行分段风险评估。根据各主要风险因素对发生风险概率的关联度,计算出各段立管在各主要风险因素下的失效权重,将所得权重结合立管各区段在多种主要风险因素下的失效关联系数,进一步计算出立管各区段的失效概率。这种评估方法为海洋立管的风险评估提供了一种新的思路,对加强海洋立管各区段管理与维护提供一定依据。

关键词: 灰色理论, 关联度, 海洋立管, 风险, 权重