Abstract: In order to acquire good viscosity prediction model to satisfy and control processes in petroleum and chemical industry, existing models were evaluated by absolute relative error at various viscosity ratios. Eight models were selected to be evaluated in this way. Each model’s prediction characteristics and accuracy were compared and recommendation was made according to different viscosity ratio. The result shows that Arrhenius, Bingham, Kendall model have a bad performance when applied to predict blend viscosity which is not recommended to use. Chevron model is recommended to use when viscosity ratio between 1 and 103. Cragoe model is better than others when viscosity ratio between 103 and 105. Whereas, no model has good prediction performance when viscosity ratio between 105 and 106. Thus, a new model is urgently needed to be developed.

Key words: Binary oil mixture,    ,  Viscosity ratio,    ,  Blend ratio,    ,  Viscosity prediction,   ,  Model evaluation

摘要： 为较好的控制和预测石油化工过程中油品掺混后的黏度, 获得对于不同工艺情形的精度较高的掺混黏度预测模型, 以黏度比为工况划分标准, 相对误差的绝对值及工程允许误差为评价准则, 评价了8种二元油品掺混黏度的预测模型。得到了各个模型在全黏度比1~1 0 6 内的黏度预测特性。计算分析了各个模型的预测精度。按黏
度比, 对掺混黏度预测做了模型的优选。结果表明, A r r h e n i u s 、 B i n g h a m、 K e n d a l l等基本模型的预测结果波动及误差较大, 不推荐使用, 黏度比在1~1 0 3 时优选C h e v r o n模型, 黏度比在1 0 4~1 0 5 时优选C r a g o e模型, 而黏度比在1 0 5~1 0 6 时各模型都超出允许范围, 且波动及偏差较大, 预测效果不好, 亟待开发出一种适用模型。

关键词: 二元掺混,   , 黏度比,   , 掺入比,   , 黏度预测,   , 模型评价