Application of GM (1, 1) on the Prediction Software of Corrosive Rate of Submarine Pipelines

doi:10.3696/j.issn.1672-6952.2011.03.016

Journal of Liaoning Petrochemical University ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 58-61.DOI: 10.3696/j.issn.1672-6952.2011.03.016

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Application of GM (1, 1) on the Prediction Software of Corrosive Rate of Submarine Pipelines

CHENG Hao-li^1,2, LIU De-jun^1*^

1.College of Petroleum Engineering，Liaoning Shihua University，Fushun Liaoning 113001, P.R.China；
2.China Petroleum Engineering Co., Ltd.Beijing Company，Beijing 100085, P.R.China

Received:2011-05-05 Published:2011-09-25 Online:2017-07-05

基于GM(1,1)模型预测海底管道腐蚀速率软件的开发

程浩力1,2,刘德俊1*

1.辽宁石油化工大学石油天然气工程学院,辽宁抚顺113001;
2.中国石油集团工程设计有限责任公司北京分公司,北京100085

作者简介:程浩力(1984-),男,河北邢台市,在读硕士。

Abstract

Abstract:

According to the insufficiency of the corrosion data from the submarine pipeline, a method to predict the corrosion rate of corrosive submarine pipelines based on grey theory was proposed. Based on the GM(1,1) of grey theory, the corrosion rate of submarine pipelines can be forecasted with just a small sample data. The software of four data GM(1,1) model, five data GM(1,1) model and interface of metabolic GM (1,1) were established with VS2010 thereby providing a scientific basis for the prediction of corrosive rate of the pipeline with little original corrosion data. The results show that the software has good prediction accuracy, with which the prediction of the corrosive rate of the submarine pipelines can be attained.

Key words: GM (1,1) , , Submarinepipeline , , Corrosionrate , , Greytheory

摘要： 针对海底油气管道的腐蚀速率,提出了基于灰色理论的海底管道的腐蚀速率预测方法。在测量数据
较少的情况下,利用GM(1,1)可以预测海底管道的腐蚀速率。基于该方法,采用VS2010编制了管线腐蚀速率四数
据、五数据及新陈代谢模型的预测软件,为在原始数据较少的条件下确定油气管道腐蚀检测周期提供了不同的检测
途径,并通过实验数据进行了检验。结果表明:所建立的GM(1,1)预测软件具有较好的预测精度,可以通过该软件
预测腐蚀速率。

关键词: GM(1, 1) , 海底管道 , 腐蚀速率 , , 灰色理论

CHENG Hao-li, LIU De-jun.

Application of GM (1, 1) on the Prediction Software of Corrosive Rate of Submarine Pipelines

[J]. Journal of Liaoning Petrochemical University, 2011, 31(3): 58-61.

程浩力,刘德俊. 基于GM(1,1)模型预测海底管道腐蚀速率软件的开发[J]. 辽宁石油化工大学学报, 2011, 31(3): 58-61.

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Application of GM (1, 1) on the Prediction Software of Corrosive Rate of Submarine Pipelines

基于GM(1,1)模型预测海底管道腐蚀速率软件的开发

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