Abstract: In view of the shortcomings of the existing accident causation models, such as simple listing and superposition of causative factors, not considering the coupling effect between factors, unable to make quantitative analysis and so on,a new nonlinear multi⁃factor coupling accident causation model was proposed and applied to the prevention of oil depot accidents. In the new model, the calculation formulas of the main influencing factors, the influence coefficient and the multi factor coupling rheological nonlinear damage were proposed. The most prominent feature of the model is that it can distinguish the dynamic influence of the rheology of the main influencing factors on the damage of the complex system under the coupling action of multiple factors. MATLAB software was used to simulate the changing state of the oil depot system after single factor rheology, main influencing factor rheology and non⁃main influencing factor rheology. The results show that the main factor affecting the safety of oil depot is the lack of safety consciousness,and the lack of safety consciousness of oil depot personnel has the greatest influence on other factors. For oil depot accident prevention, according to the nonlinear multi⁃factor coupling accident cause model proposed in this paper, it is necessary to take effective measures to control the main influencing factors and seize the main time nodes.

Key words: Coupling, Association, Main influencing factors, Rheology, Accident cause

摘要： 鉴于目前已有的事故致因模型存在致因因素简单罗列叠加、未考虑因素间耦合效应、无法定量分析等不足，提出了一种新型的非线性多因素耦合事故致因模型，并把模型应用于油库事故预防中。新模型提出了主要影响因素牵连影响系数、多因素耦合流变非线性损伤的计算公式，其最突出的特点是，在多种因素的耦合作用下，能够辨别复杂系统中主要影响因素的流变对系统损伤的动态影响。应用MATLAB软件，模拟油库系统在单因素发生流变、主要影响因素发生流变、非主要影响因素发生流变后系统的变化状态。结果表明，影响油库安全的主要因素是安全意识缺乏，油库人员安全意识的缺乏对其他因素的影响程度最大。对于油库事故预防，依据本文提出的非线性多因素耦合事故致因模型，需要针对主要影响因素，抓住主要时间节点采取有效措施进行控制。

关键词: 耦合, 关联, 主要影响因素, 流变, 事故致因