Abstract: In order to ensure the long⁃term safe, stable and efficient operation of the rotating machinery, a risk cloud model evaluation method for the rotating machinery rotor system is proposed for the actual risk status of the rotor system. The evaluation method firstly uses FMECA to summarize the failure mode of the rotating machinery rotor system, finds the defects and weak links of its reliability, and identifies the main failure modes that cause the rotor system to fail. Then, based on the stress⁃strength interference model, the three digital characteristics of the rotor system cloud model in the single failure mode are constructed, which combines with the fuzzy and randomness of the cloud model to obtain the risk cloud model evaluation of the rotor system. Qualitative and quantitative results.It is applied to the turbine rotor system, and the rotor system is comprehensively evaluated by MATLAB simulation and visually presented in the form of cloud droplets.

Key words: Rotor system, Failure mode, Stress?intensity interference model, Cloud model, Risk evaluation

摘要： 为了保证旋转机械长期安全、稳定、高效运行，针对其实际的转子系统相关风险状况，提出旋转机械转子系统风险云模型评估方法。首先利用FMECA（故障模式、影响及危害性分析）总结了旋转机械转子系统失效模式，发现其可靠性存在的缺陷和薄弱环节，辨识导致转子系统故障的主要失效模式，然后根据应力⁃强度干涉模型构建单一失效模式下转子系统云模型的期望、熵和超熵三个数字特征，使其与结合云模型的模糊性、随机性相结合，得到转子系统风险云模型评估的定性及定量结果。将其应用到汽轮机转子系统中，采用MATLAB仿真对转子系统进行综合评估并以云滴形式直观地展现。

关键词: 转子系统, 失效模式, 应力?强度干涉模型, 云模型, 风险评估