Abstract: A system dynamics model of water resources utilization in urban ecosystem was established. The relationships among water resources utilization, urban economic development, and pollutant emissions, etc in urban ecosystem-were analyzed. Taking Fushun for instance, four water resources utilization patterns in urban ecosystem were designed, and then the trends of water resources utilization in urban ecosystem were forecasted and analyzed during 2011-2020. The results show that the water resources system in urban ecosystem consisted of four subsystems, namely, water resources subsystem, population subsystem, economy subsystems and environment subsystem. The comprehensive development pattern can improve the utilization of water resources in Fushun city among the four, and in that case, the water resources factor, total population, the GDP of secondary industry, COD discharging will reach 1.042 2, 2.16 million, 123.46 billion Yuan, and 31 308 t, respectively.

Key words: 　Urban ecosystem , Water resources , System dynamics , Utilization pattern

摘要： 　    建立了城市生态系统水资源利用的系统动力学模型，分析了城市生态系统水资源利用与城市经济发展、污染物排放等衡量指标之间的关系。以抚顺市为例，设计了城市生态系统水资源利用的４种模式，预测并分析了该市２０１１－２０２０年生态系统水资源的利用情况。研究结果表明：城市生态系统水资源由水资源、人口、经济和生态环境４个子系统组成；在４种模式中，综合发展模式能够较大幅度地提高抚顺市水资源利用率；在该模式下，抚顺市到２０２０年水资源平衡因子达到１．０４２　２，总人口为２　１６０　８３０人，二产ＧＤＰ达到１．２３４　６×１０１１元，ＣＯＤ排放量达到３１　３０８ｔ。

关键词: 城市生态系统 , 水资源 , 系统动力学 , 利用模式