Abstract: Cointegration model and error correction model were developed based on the economic theory of consumption. The relation between urban consumption level and prices of commercial property were inspected in Liaoning Province. The study results show that the urban consumption level is promoted by the prices of commercial property in the long run and the short-term effect is the inhibition of consumption level due to "squeeze effect". The government should safeguard the healthy development of estate market and promote the rapid stable growth of economic with Liaoning Province by the way of improving the individual disposable income and suppressing house price firmly.

Key words: Cointegration , Error correction model , Squeeze effect

摘要：     　基于影响消费的经济理论机制，通过建立协整和误差修正等计量经济模型，考察了辽宁省城镇居民消费水平与商品房销售价格之间的相互影响关系。研究结果表明：商品房销售价格对城镇居民的消费水平的长期影响表现为促进作用；短期影响则因“挤出效应”而表现为对消费水平的抑制作用。政府应通过提高居民可支配收入、制定抑制房价快速增长的政策等有效方式保障房地产市场的健康发展，进而促进辽宁省经济的快速稳定增长。

关键词: 协整 , 　误差修正模型 , 　挤出效应