Journal of Liaoning Petrochemical University

Journal of Liaoning Petrochemical University ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 42-45.DOI: 10.3696/j.issn.1672-6952.2011.03.012

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Fuzzy Evaluation in Basic Events' Probability of Fault Tree Analysis of Assessment of the Tank Farm

 

JI Xu1， WANG Yue1*，WANG Jian2
  

  1.  
    1.College of Petroleum Engineering，Liaoning Shihua University，Fushun Liaoning 113001， P.R.China；
    2. Dalian Huayou Engineering Project Management Co., Ltd.，Dalian Liaoning 116033， P.R.China
  • Received:2011-03-04 Published:2011-09-25 Online:2017-07-05

油库安全分析中事故树基本事件概率的模糊化

纪 旭1,王 岳1* ,王 健2   

  1. 1.辽宁石油化工大学石油天然气工程学院,辽宁抚顺113001;2.大连华油工程项目管理有限公司,辽宁大连116033
  • 作者简介:纪旭(1986-),女,辽宁抚顺市,在读硕士。

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Abstract:  

There are many methods in safety assessment of the tank farm. Because the elements of the accident are always uncertainty, the traditional safety assessments have the limits by themselves. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is a way to fuzzy and quantifys the uncertainty of dangerous elements. This method is always used in safety assessment through the way of rating by experts and security level can be observed. And fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is already used in the safety assessment of a system, and it is a simple way to assess. The fault tree analysis is a method of analysis in quantization. It exists a problem in getting the date of basic events' probability, because of lacking enough statistical data. According to the fuzzy evaluation,the basic events' probability can be certain. Those data can be used in practical calculation. And this method is effective and useful in assessment.

Key words: Basic events,  Fault tree ,  Fuzzy mathematics  ,  Probability statistics

摘要： 评价油库安全的方法有很多,因为引起事故的因素具有不确定性,所以传统的评价方法有其自身的
局限性。模糊综合分析法是一种将危险因素的不确定性模糊后量化进行评价的方法,这种方法被大量应用于安全
评价体系当中。以往的模糊分析通常用于系统安全性的评价上,通过专家打分可以直观地了解油库的安全等级,评
价方式简单。事故树定量分析法是一种有效的分析方法,其难点在于因基本事件发生概率的统计资料不充足而难
以确定。事故树定量分析法对基本事件发生的可能性进行模糊分析,将得到的可能性等级量化后再用于实际计算。
这种方法具有评价方式简单直观的特点,量化分析后比以往方式更具有实际意义。

关键词: 基本事件, 事故树分析法 , 模糊数学 ,  , 概率统计

Cite this article

JI Xu，WANG Yue，WANG Jian.  

Fuzzy Evaluation in Basic Events' Probability of Fault Tree Analysis of Assessment of the Tank Farm
[J]. Journal of Liaoning Petrochemical University, 2011, 31(3): 42-45.

纪 旭,王 岳,王 健. 油库安全分析中事故树基本事件概率的模糊化[J]. 辽宁石油化工大学学报, 2011, 31(3): 42-45.

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