关键词: 火灾事故, 预测, 浴盆形, 灰色, Matlab

Abstract: Because there is a large error defect of predicting the severe fluctuating fire data by traditional grey forecasting model, the article expends the original data sequence of grey prediction model using Taylor formula and expends Lagrange type remainder, which modified the traditional grey forecasting model and improved the traditional grey prediction algorithm. The article used Matlab software to program, and used the traditional gray prediction algorithm and improved gray prediction algorithm,respectively.Then the article selected three sets of data to predict aiming at the mini zone bathtub shape fire accident. As the results show that: modified grey forecasting model prediction curve gives satisfactory accuracy comparing to the characteristic of bathtub curve, which has a high consistency with the original data.And the poor quality, large error and low accuracy is improved. Compared with the traditional grey prediction model, the error of the improved grey prediction model has reduced 86.59%, 55.32%, and 55.70%, respectively. The prediction results of the improved grey prediction model can meet the requirements in three aspects: accuracy, relative error and correlation.

Key words: Fire accident, Prediction, Bathtub shape, Gray, Matlab