Abstract:

        Given the frequent accidents attributed to abnormal pressure fluctuation and the less effectiveness of preventive measures of complex pipe network, the FTA method of graph theory was applied to solve this problem. Induced mechanism of abnormal pressure fluctuations was interpreted and the FTA model of pressure abnormal fluctuations in complex pipeline network was firstly proposed and established in this paper. An imported crude oil pipe network was taken as a case study by using the Delphi method and fuzzy mathematics theory to solve the model. Results agree well with the actual statistics. Then K-means clustering method was carried on to analyze the three importance of typical basic events and the three-tier structure of the abnormal fluctuations is proposed using the DTA method, which lies a theoretical basis for the analysis on abnormal events as well as the optimization of the prevention and control measures. This paper mainly offers a new research idea in the field of operation security and integrity management of the large, complex pipe network especially when the historical data is far from complete.

Key words: Complexpipenetwork, Pressurefluctuation, FTA;Fuzzysets, DTA

摘要：         针对复杂输油管道压力异常波动事故频发,防控措施效果不理想的现状,应用图论中的故障树分析方法演绎压力异常波动的诱导机制,首次提出并建立了复杂输油管道压力异常波动的故障树模型。以某进口原油管道为例,运用德尔菲法和模糊数学理论求解模型,定性分析与定量计算的结果与工程实际相吻合。运用K 均值聚类方法分析典型基本事件的三个重要度,提出了管网压力异常波动的三元决策树结构,为波动事件的分析和防控措施的优化提供了理论依据。以压力异常波动为切入点,在历史数据不完备条件下,为大型复杂输油管道运行安全与完整性管理领域的研究提供了一种新的思路。

关键词: 复杂输油管道, 压力波动, 故障树, 模糊数学, 决策树