Abstract: The ethylene cracking furnace tube is the key component of the cracking furnace; its failure will bring serious consequences such as the fire explosion etc. According to methods of Monte Carlo and risk analysis theory of API581 of American petroleum institute, it was provides qualitative and quantitatively analysis failure probability of the ethylene cracking furnace tubes for a petrochemical corporation, and obtains the failure probability of this furnace tube. Some results can be seen by the two methods, the failure probability calculated by Monte Carlo method increased with the increase of the runtime of furnace tube under creep and carburization; while the failure probability calculated by API581 only considering creep is lower than that computed by Monte Carlo method.

Key words: Ethylene cracking furnace ,   , Tube   ,  Failure probability ,   ,  Risk

摘要： 乙烯裂解炉炉管是裂解炉的关键部件,它的失效会带来火灾爆炸等严重后果。根据蒙特卡罗方法和
美国石油学会的API581中的风险分析理论,对某石化公司的乙烯裂解炉炉管的失效概率进行了定量分析和计算。
通过两种方法的结果比较看出,应用蒙特卡罗方法分析计算在蠕变和渗碳的相互作用下炉管的失效概率随着运行
时间增加而不断增加;而应用API581中基于风险检验方法计算炉管在蠕变失效下的年失效概率,由于未考虑渗碳
失效,所得到的失效概率相对于利用蒙特卡罗方法计算的失效概率要低。

关键词: 乙烯裂解炉,  ,  炉管,  , 失效概率,  ,  风险