Abstract: Take the China, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, as the main countries, the rest of the world as an integral region, the study establishes an Asian Energy - Environment - Economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) evaluation model. The model time span was from 1995 to 2050. The model was developed to analyze and evaluate different countries' energy supply and consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution under environmental taxes. The energy demand and optimized energy supply programs were projected by the model. The results demonstrate that the economy structure and energy structure will be promoted to adjustment in the collection of environmental taxes. It is proved the effectiveness and feasibility of the introduction of the environmental tax of 0.152×10³ USD/t.

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摘要： 以中国及周边国家日本、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、新加坡、泰国、菲律宾为主要研究对象, 将世界其他地区作为一个地域来考虑, 建立了时间跨度为1995 ～ 2050 年的亚洲能源-经济-环境系统综合评价CGE 模型。模型通过对各个地域中各个部门能源生产、输送、消耗的平衡关系进行优化分析, 得到了未来经济发展情景下的能源需求预测方案及能源系统费用最小的能源供应方案。在考虑环境税引入的3 种情景下, 考察及对比分析3 种环境税情景下我国SO2 排放量及未来能源消费结构的情况。模拟结果表明, 当环境税为152 USD/ t 时, 对SO₂ 排放的控制效果比较明显, 且对整体经济影响不大。

关键词: 能源模型 , 环境排放 , CGE , 环境税