Abstract: The reliability of pressure pipeline containing defects in engineering is very important. The pipeline of the oil industry may contain types of potential defects. It should be considered the defected size, the uncertainty of the loaded parameters, so introduced the Monte Carlo method to use random sampling for these uncertain parameters. Monte Carlo method is based on the probability and statistic theory method, it can realistically describe the characteristics of the random things, and overcome the disadvantage of the deterministic failure analysis method, more accurate calculate the failure probability of the pipeline, it provides a technical means for diagnosing system security of petrochemical enterprise.

Key words: 　Pipe , Monte Carlo method , Safety evaluation , Failure probability

摘要： 　    含缺陷压力管道的可靠性在工程中是十分重要的。针对石油工业管道上可能存在的各种缺陷类型，要充分考虑缺陷尺寸、工况载荷等参数的不确定性，而引入了蒙特卡罗法对这些不确定的参数进行随机抽样。蒙特卡罗法是以概率和统计理论方法为基础的一种计算方法，能够比较逼真地描述具有随机性质的事物的特点，克服了确定性失效评定方法的缺点，较为准确地计算出管道的失效概率，为石化企业诊断系统安全提供了一个技术手段。

关键词: 管道 , 　蒙特卡罗法 , 　安全评定 , 　失效概率