Abstract:

In order to improve the accuracy of gasifier risk assessment, a safety assessment method that combines cloud model with catastrophe progression method was proposed. Through literature review and expert analysis, the risks of the gasifier are divided into mechanical systems, personnel, management and environmental risks, and a multi?level risk assessment system for the gasifier was established. The cloud model is an effective tool for qualitative and quantitative conversion. The entropy and hyper?entropy feature values of the cloud model were introduced, and the cloud entropy weight method was proposed to improve the traditional weight calculation method, and the weight calculation of all indicators was carried out to improve the accuracy of the ranking results. According to the normalization formula, the mutation membership value of each layer index and the total mutation membership value of the gasifier are calculated, and the risk level of the gasifier is judged according to the risk level evaluation table. The research results show that this method improves the comprehensiveness and objectivity of the weight ranking, and makes the gasifier risk assessment results consistent with the actual situation, which verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.

Key words: Gasifier, Catastrophe progression method, Cloud model, Cloud entropy weight method, Risk assessment

摘要：

为了提高气化炉风险评估的准确性，提出了一种将云模型与突变级数法相结合的安全评价方法。通过查阅文献及专家分析，将气化炉风险分为机械系统、人员、管理以及环境风险，建立气化炉多层次风险评估体系。云模型是一种定性与定量之间相互转换的有效工具，云模型中引入熵与超熵特征值，提出云熵权法改进传统权重计算方法，对所有指标进行权重计算，提高排序结果的准确性。根据归一公式计算各层指标的突变隶属度值及气化炉总突变隶属度值，依据风险等级评价表判断气化炉风险等级。结果表明，该方法提高了权重排序的全面性和客观性，使气化炉风险评估结果与实际相符合，验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。

关键词: 气化炉, 突变级数法, 云模型, 云熵权法, 风险评估