Abstract: In order to improve the accuracy of leakage volume calculation of product oil pipelines, the error analysis of the input parameters used to calculate the leakage volume of product oil pipelines is carried out, including the time lag error of the pipeline operation data, the numerical error of the pipeline inner diameter and the numerical error of the oil physical properties. Through the sensitivity analysis of the input parameters, it is found that the leakage volume is the least sensitive to flow rate. The variation rate of pipeline leakage is positively correlated with time lag rate, pressure change rate and inner diameter change rate, while it is negatively correlated with flowrate change rate. The sensitivity of pipeline leakage volume to each input parameter is different within the range of variation rate of parameters.

Key words: Product oil pipelines, Leakage volume, Error, Sensitivity analysis

摘要： 为了提高成品油管道泄漏量测算的准确性，对用于成品油管道泄漏量测算的输入参数进行了误差分析，包括管道运营数据的时间滞后误差、运营数据的数值误差、管道内径的数值误差以及油品物性的数值误差。通过泄漏量参数敏感性分析发现，管道泄漏量对流量的敏感程度最低；管道泄漏量变化率与时间滞后率、压力变化率、内径变化率呈正相关，与流量变化率呈负相关，在不同的参数变化率范围内，管道泄漏量对各参数的敏感性不同。

关键词: 成品油管道, 泄漏量, 误差, 敏感性分析