Abstract: Because the risk factors for oil and gas transmission pipeline have complexity and fuzziness, and the factor weights are difficult to distribute. Therefore the entropy weight method was used to determine the factor weights, and the fuzzy comprehensive was used to evaluate the risk. First of all, the basic principle of entropy weight method and steps of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were briefly described. Then a section of oil conveying pipeline in Beijing area as an example, the risk evaluation index system was established and the factors weights were determined by using the entropy weight method. Finally, the risk level was determined by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the result was consistent with the judgment made by field experts. And according to the evaluation results, the corresponding prevention measures were proposed, so as to verify the feasibility of the method.

Key words: Entropy method, Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Oil and gas pipeline, Risk analysis, Safety evaluation

摘要： 针对油气长输管道风险因素具有复杂性和模糊性, 且各因素的权重难以分配的问题, 提出了采用熵权法确定因素权重的方法, 并运用模糊综合评价法对其风险进行了评估。首先, 简述了熵权法的基本原理和模糊综合评价的方法步骤。然后, 以北京地区某段原油输送管线为例, 建立风险评价指标体系, 采用熵权法确定了各因素的权重。最后, 进行模糊综合评价, 确定了风险等级, 其结果与现场专家判断结果一致, 并针对评价结果提出相应的预防管理措施, 从而验证了该方法的可行性。

关键词: 熵权法, 模糊综合评价, 油气管道, 风险分析, 安全评价