Abstract: For offshore pipeline in a multilevel, multivariable, multiple nonquantitative factors, the lack of effective means of quantitative assessment of the conditions, the establishment of a multilevel system of pipeline safety evaluation index, combining analytic hierarchy process to determine the corresponding layers of indicators weight through the use of multilevel gray theory, the pipeline system for safety assessment would affect the level of risk to quantify treatment, given the reliability of inservice pipeline quantify the results. Multilevel grey evaluation method for less data, small sample, incomplete information and lack of experience with the uncertainty calculation was simple, direct, scientific and practical, and could be used to service for the offshore pipeline safety assessment.

Key words: Gray league, Quantitative analysis, AHP, Whitening functions, Weights

摘要：  针对受多层次、 多变量、 多种非定量因素影响的海上输油管道系统缺乏有效定量评估手段, 建立了输油管道体系的多层次安全评估指标, 结合层次分析法, 确定了各层指标对应的权重, 应用多层次灰色理论, 对输油管道体系进行了安全评估, 对风险影响程度进行了定量化处理, 给出了在役输油管道的可靠性量化结果。对少数据、小样本、 信息不完全和经验缺乏的不确定性问题, 多层次灰色评估方法具有计算简便、 直接、 科学和实用的特点, 可为在役海上输油管道的可靠性综合评估提供一种量化方法。

关键词: 灰类 ,  , 定量分析 ,  层次分析法 ,  , 白化函数 ,  权重