Application of Gray Theory and BP Neural Network to the Prediction of Gasoline and Diesel Demand

Journal of Liaoning Petrochemical University ›› 2009, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (2): 11-14.

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Application of Gray Theory and BP Neural Network to the Prediction of Gasoline and Diesel Demand

XUE Chun-lan¹， ZHANGMing-hua^2*,ZHENGAi-ping³,SONGZhao-zheng²,JIANGQing-zhe²

1.Teacher College for Vocational Study, Nanjing Jiangsu 210009，P.R.China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Heavy Oil Processing，Faculty of Chemical Science and Engineering，China University of Petroleum，Beijing 102200, P.R.China;

Received:2008-12-12 Published:2009-06-25 Online:2017-07-05

灰色理论和BP神经网络在汽柴油需求预测中的应用

薛春兰¹,张明华^2* ,郑爱萍³,宋昭峥²,蒋庆哲²

1.江苏南京教师进修学校,江苏南京210009;2.中国石油大学化学科学与工程学院,重质油国家重点实验室,北京102200;
3.中国石油玉门油田分公司科技信息处,甘肃玉门735200

作者简介:薛春兰(1963-),女,江苏宜兴市,副教授,硕士

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the gasoline and diesel annual consumption in the period of time from1998 to 2006, the grey theory and BP neural network methods are used to forecast the demand of gasoline and diesel in 2009 and 2010. The results, grounded on the analyses of the reasons, show that the demand of gasoline and diesel for consumption will increase significantly in 2010, 37and 58 percent respectively against that of the year 2006. 

Key words: Gray theory , BP neural network , Gasoline , Diesel

摘要： 对于目前汽柴油消费特点,以1998-2006年汽柴油年消费量为基础样本,采用灰色理论和BP神经
网络两种方法分别预测了2009和2010我国汽柴油的需求量。在分析原因的基础上,预测结果表明,今后两年,汽柴
油的需求量有较大增幅,相比于2006年的消费量,2010年汽柴油需求分别增加了37%和43%,并简要分析了原因。

关键词: 灰色理论 , BP神经网络 , 汽油 , 柴油

XUE Chun-lan1， ZHANGMing-hua,ZHENGAi-ping,SONGZhao-zheng,JIANGQing-zhe. Application of Gray Theory and BP Neural Network to the Prediction of Gasoline and Diesel Demand[J]. Journal of Liaoning Petrochemical University, 2009, 29(2): 11-14.

薛春兰,张明华,郑爱萍,宋昭峥,蒋庆哲. 灰色理论和BP神经网络在汽柴油需求预测中的应用[J]. 辽宁石油化工大学学报, 2009, 29(2): 11-14.

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Application of Gray Theory and BP Neural Network to the Prediction of Gasoline and Diesel Demand

灰色理论和BP神经网络在汽柴油需求预测中的应用

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