Abstract: In view of the increasingly serious problem of corrosion and perforation of the oil pipe caused by water source well in the SZ36-1 oilfield, the corrosion law of the pipe is studied under field conditions and the corrosion is predicted. The Orthogonal experiment of five factors and four levels is designed to analyze the effects of temperature, pressure, flow rate, CO₂ concentration and salinity on the corrosion rate.The main controlling factors in the corrosion environment of the water source well of SZ36-1 oilfield are temperature and CO₂ concentration. The corrosion prediction model is established and compared by multiple linear regression analysis and BP neural network. The comparative analysis results show that the corrosion prediction model based on multiple linear regression method has higher prediction accuracy and is more suitable for corrosion prediction of oilfield water source well.

Key words: Water source well corrosion, Corrosion factor, Orthogonal experiment, Corrosion prediction

摘要： 针对SZ36-1油田水源井水对油管腐蚀穿孔的影响日益严重的问题，在现场工况下研究了管材的腐蚀规律并对腐蚀进行了预测。设计5因素4水平的正交实验，分析了温度、压力、流速、CO₂质量浓度和矿化度等5个因素对腐蚀速率的影响，确定了SZ36-1油田水源井腐蚀环境下的主控因素是温度和CO₂质量浓度。通过多元线性回归分析方法和BP神经网络方法，建立腐蚀预测模型并进行了对比分析。对比分析结果表明，基于多元线性回归方法的腐蚀预测模型预测精度更高，更适合目前油田水源井水的腐蚀预测。

关键词: 水源井腐蚀, 腐蚀因素, 正交实验, 腐蚀预测