This study uses short?term gas supply prediction for storage facilities as the seasonal peak?shaving volume.This approach ensured supply reliability while improving the operational efficiency and economic benefits of storage facilities,tackling the supply?demand imbalance caused by seasonal peak?valley differences.Accurate prediction of downstream users' natural gas demand could effectively reflect the required short?term gas supply from storage.Daily natural gas consumption data from a specific region during 2021-2024 was selected.Incorporating temperature variations and date types,the study comprehensively considers trend components,seasonal patterns, and holiday effects.A Prophet forecasting model suitable for predicting short?term gas supply from storage was proposed.Four performance metrics?Mean Absolute Error (r_MAE),Mean Absolute Percentage Error (r_MAP),Root Mean Square Error (r_RMS),and Coefficient of Determination (R²)?were used to comparatively evaluate the Prophet model against five other common models (including STL decomposition and VARMAX).The results show that the Prophet model achieves an r_MAE of 13.15 m3,an r_MAP of 2.71%,an r_RMS of 16.52 m3,and an R2 of 0.99 on the test set,which is significantly superior to other models.During the winter gas consumption peak period,its prediction error can be controlled within 5%.By integrating two exogenous variables?climatic conditions and date types.The Prophet model can accurately capture the seasonal and sudden fluctuation characteristics of natural gas consumption of downstream users, improve the prediction accuracy of gas storage supply,and provide key data support for peak?shaving and supply guarantee of gas storage reservoirs.

Transporting hydrogen?blended natural gas (HBNG) through existing natural gas pipelines can significantly reduce the cost of hydrogen transportation. To evaluate the risk of HBNG pipeline leakage, a high?pressure pipeline small?hole leakage model and a Gaussian plume model are combined, taking into account the lifting height caused by the initial momentum of the jet. The calculation results of the Gaussian plume model are compared with the existing experimental data. Then, the influence of the hydrogen mixing ratio, pipeline pressure, wind speed, and leakage hole diameter on the explosion risk area caused by the leakage of the natural gas pipeline is analyzed. The research results indicate that the calculation results of the Gaussian plume model are in good agreement with the experimental data. The hydrogen mixing ratio is approximately linearly negatively correlated with the maximum distance from the methane hazardous area, and linearly positively correlated with the maximum distance from the hydrogen hazardous area. The maximum distance between methane and hydrogen hazardous areas is approximately linearly positively correlated with pipeline pressure, negatively correlated with wind speed, and approximately proportional to the diameter of the leakage hole.

Microcapsules consisting of 58# paraffin wax used as the cores and melamineformaldehyde resin used as the shell were synthesized by the insitu polymerization, and the improvement of apparent morphology and core content of microcapsules was researched. The effects of pH adjustment method, the type of curing agent and stratified treatment on morphology and thermal storage property of microcapsule were studied by SEM, PSDA and DSC. It indicates that pH adjustment is an important factor to microcapsules' morphology and the overall property of microcapsules is greatly improved when NaCl is used as curing agent. After stratified processing, particle sizes of the microcapsules show unimodal distribution and core material content is up to 86.1%.