Abstract:

The motion output accuracy of the mechanism has been significantly affected by the performance degradation of components. In this paper, the cumulative factor of wear degradation is considered. On the premise of small samples, an analysis method of time?varying reliability of mechanisms is proposed. This analysis method applies the cosimulation of ADAMS and MATLAB. Based on the Archard wear model, the pin radius degradation is calculated and considered as a time series problem. The mechanism function is established according to the RSM method, and the ARIMA method is used to predict the change of the mechanism response value under the subsequent wear cycle to expand the data samples. Based on the interference model of stress?strength,the limit state equation of mechanism is established and the time?varying reliability is calculated. The convenience and accuracy of this method are demonstrated with a crank?slider mechanism.

Key words: Wear degradation, Small sample, Time series, Time varying reliability

摘要：

零部件的性能退化对机构的运动输出性能有很大影响。考虑磨损退化这一累积性因素，在小样本的前提下，提出了机构时变可靠性的分析方法。此分析方法应用ADAMS与MATLAB的联合仿真，以Archard磨损模型为基础，计算销轴半径退化量；将销轴半径退化量考虑为时间序列问题，根据RSM方法建立机构功能函数，结合ARIMA方法预测后续磨损周期下机构响应值变化，实现数据样本扩展；以应力强度干涉模型为基础，建立机构极限状态方程，计算时变可靠度。通过曲柄滑块机构，证明了这一方法的便捷性与准确性。

关键词: 磨损退化, 小样本, 时间序列, 时变可靠性