Abstract: Based on the Kuznets curve (EKC curve) model, the environment-income logarithmic model with cubic terms is constructed, and the four types of regional pollution indicators data including water pollution, air pollution and solid waste pollution in China from 2000 to 2014 are utilized. And the relevant data of environmental monitoring in Liaoning Province. The regression curve with the best fitting degree was obtained, and the data of the whole country and Liaoning Province in 2015 were verified. The relationship between environmental pollution indicators and economic growth (per capita GDP) in Liaoning Province and the whole country was analyzed and forecasted.The results show that, both the Liaoning Province and the whole country, with the increase in per capita GDP, the per capita wastewater discharge and smoke dust emissions increase, and the per capita chemical oxygen demand emissions and sulfur dioxide emissions decrease.

Key words: EKC curve, Economic growth, Environmental pollution, New normal, Relationship analysis

摘要： 基于库兹涅茨曲线（EKC曲线）模型，构造带有三次项的环境收入对数模型，利用2000—2014年我国水污染、大气污染与固体废弃物污染在内的四类区域污染指标数据及辽宁省环境监测相关数据，对库兹涅茨曲线模型进行多次回归分析，得到拟合度最好的回归曲线，并验证2015年全国及辽宁省的各项数据，对比分析辽宁省与全国各项环境污染指标与经济增长（人均GDP）的关系曲线，分析并预测了环境污染情况。结果表明，无论是辽宁省还是全国，随着人均GDP的上升，人均废水排放量与烟粉尘排放量上升，人均化学需氧量排放量与二氧化硫排放量下降。

关键词: EKC曲线, 经济增长, 环境污染, 新常态, 关系分析