Abstract: Based on the field investigation of the leakage of pipeline transportation and combining with the latest research direction of emergency management mechanism, it was found that the stochastic Petri net model suitable for this kind of problem was modeling. Taking the Huangdao oil pipeline leakage accident as an example, the data of emergency management flow of pipeline transportation leakage were collected and processed, and isomorphism Markov chain to study the change utilization rate and average delay time was used. The results of the study indicated that the coordinated treatment of pipeline leakage systems, protection of the affected areas and the transfer of the masses took the most time in emergency operations. Therefore, intensifying the cooperation between the central construction administrative agencies and the local construction administrative agencies and perfecting the mass transfer and resettlement system were reasonable measures to strengthen emergency management of pipeline leakage and minimize economic losses.

Key words: Pipeline transportation leakage, Emergency management, Stochastic Petri net, Markov chain

摘要： 针对管道运输泄漏情况进行实地调研,结合应急管理机制最新研究方向,发现适用于此类问题的建模方案———随机Petri网模型。以黄岛输油管道泄漏事故为例,收集整理管道运输泄漏应急管理流程相关数据,用同构马尔可夫链从变迁利用率、平均延迟时间两方面进行研究。研究结果表明,管道泄漏系统的协调处理、受灾地区的防护和群众的转移安置在应急行动中耗时最多。因此,加大中央建设行政机构和地方建设行政机构之间的合作力度、完善群众转移安置体系,是加强管道泄漏应急管理、将经济损失降到最低的合理手段。

关键词: 管道运输泄漏, 应急管理, 随机Petri网, 马尔可夫链