辽宁石油化工大学学报

辽宁石油化工大学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (6): 67-72.DOI: :10.3969/j.issn.1672-6952.2017.06.014

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通货膨胀持续性来源及其测度-----基于中国的经验证据

丁洪福1,苑 艺1,尹志国2   

  1. 1.辽宁石油化工大学经济管理学院,辽宁抚顺113001;2.中国石油西部管道公司,新疆乌鲁木齐830011
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-23 修回日期:2017-03-09 出版日期:2017-12-20 发布日期:2018-02-27
  • 作者简介::丁洪福(1980-),男,博士,讲师,从事货币政策及数量经济学方面的研究;E-mail:dinghongfu@126.com。
  • 基金资助:
    :辽宁经济社会发展项目(2016lslktzijjx-36);辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L14BJY028)。

The Source and Measuring of Inflation Persistence:Empirical Evidence in China

Ding Hongfu1, Yuan Yi1, Yin Zhiguo2   

  1. 1.School of Economics & Management,Liaoning Shihua University,Fushun Liaoning 113001,China; 2.PetroChina West Pipeline Company,Urumqi Xinjiang 830011,China
  • Received:2016-12-23 Revised:2017-03-09 Published:2017-12-20 Online:2018-02-27

摘要: 梳理通货膨胀持续性产生的来源,即内在通货膨胀持续性、基于预期的通货膨胀持续性和外在的通货膨胀持续性。利用多变量结构时间序列模型,基于卡尔曼滤波的方法,测度三种通货膨胀持续性。结果表明,中国除了存在较大的内在通货膨胀持续性,还存在严重的基于预期的通货膨胀持续性和外在的通货膨胀持续性。

关键词: 通货膨胀持续性, 通货膨胀目标, 卡尔曼滤波, 测度

Abstract: The sources of inflation persistence were analyzed, including intrinsic inflation persistence, extrinsic inflation persistence, and expectationsbased inflation persistence. The multivariate structural time series model which measure inflation persistence based on the Kalman filter approach was used. The results showed that there was not only largely extrinsic inflation persistence, but also existed serious expectationsbased inflation persistence and extrinsic inflation persistence in China.

Key words: Inflation persistence, Inflation target, Kalman filter, Measuring

引用本文

丁洪福, 苑 艺, 尹志国. 通货膨胀持续性来源及其测度-----基于中国的经验证据[J]. 辽宁石油化工大学学报, 2017, 37(6): 67-72.

Ding Hongfu, Yuan Yi, Yin Zhiguo. The Source and Measuring of Inflation Persistence:Empirical Evidence in China[J]. Journal of Liaoning Petrochemical University, 2017, 37(6): 67-72.

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链接本文: https://journal.lnpu.edu.cn/CN/:10.3969/j.issn.1672-6952.2017.06.014

               https://journal.lnpu.edu.cn/CN/Y2017/V37/I6/67