Abstract:

The chemical storage tank area is a place with a large number of hazard sources, and the dynamic risk of the storage tank area cannot be quantified and characterized by traditional emergency management methods. Therefore, based on PPRR theory, a quantitative evaluation model of fire emergency management ability of chemical tank farm was established, and the weight of evaluation index was determined by interval analytic hierarchy process. The improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to quantitatively evaluate the fire emergency management ability of chemical tank farm. This model is used to evaluate the fire emergency management ability of chemical tank farm of M Petrochemical Company, and the accuracy of this model is verified. The results show that the evaluation score of fire emergency management ability of chemical tank farm of M Petrochemical Company is 3.35, which is consistent with the qualitative evaluation result, and the accuracy of this model is verified. The model can solve the problem of uncertainty of the importance degree of the indicators, and the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method can point out the deficiencies and degree of chemical tank farm, which can provide a new way to perfect and improve the fire emergency management ability of the chemical tank farm.

Key words: Emergency management, Chemical tank farm, Interval analytic hierarchy process, Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, Membership function

摘要：

化工储罐区是危险源数量极多的场所，通过传统的应急管理方法无法量化并表征储罐区的动态风险。因此，基于PPRR理论构建了化工罐区火灾应急管理能力定量评价模型；利用区间层次分析法确定了评估指标的权重，使用改进的模糊综合评价法，对化工罐区火灾应急管理能力进行了定量评价；运用基于PPRR理论的化工罐区火灾应急管理能力定量评价模型，对M石化公司化工罐区火灾应急管理能力进行评价，并对此模型的准确性进行了验证。结果表明，M石化公司化工罐区火灾应急管理能力的评价得分为3.35，与定性评价结果相吻合，验证了此模型的准确性；该模型能很好地解决指标重要程度不确定的问题，而改进的模糊综合评价法能指出化工罐区的欠缺之处及欠缺程度，可为完善和提高化工罐区火灾应急管理能力提供新思路。

关键词: 应急管理, 化工罐区, 区间层次分析法, 模糊综合评价法, 隶属函数