石油化工高等学校学报

石油化工高等学校学报

• 油气储运 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于模糊故障树的输油管道压力异常波动分析

王国涛1,2,姬中元2,3,李传宪2,陈 赫4,杨 飞2   

  1. 1.中石化管道储运有限公司,江苏徐州221000;
    2.山东省油气储运安全省级重点实验室青岛市环海油气储运技术重点实验室,山东青岛266580;
    3.中车青岛四方机车车辆股份有限公司国家工程研究中心,山东青岛266000;
    4.中石化天然气分公司华北天然气销售营业部,山东青岛266400
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-23 修回日期:2017-01-04 出版日期:2017-04-20 发布日期:2017-05-05
  • 通讯作者: 李传宪(1963-),男,博士,教授,博士生导师,从事油气长距离管输等方面的研究;E-mail:lchxian@upc.edu.cn。
  • 作者简介:王国涛(1965-),男,硕士,高级工程师,从事油气长距离管输方面的研究;E-mail:hdwanggt@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(51204202);山东省自然科学基金(ZR2012EEQ002);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(14CX02210A,15CX06072A)。

  Abnormal Fluctuations Analysis  for  Pipe Network System Based on the Fuzzy Fault Tree

Wang Guotao 1,2,Ji Zhongyuan 2,3,Li Chuanxian 2,Chen He 4,Yang Fei 2   

  1. 1. Sinopec Pipeline Storage and Transportation Branch Company, Xuzhou Jiangsu 221000, China;

    2. Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation Safety, Qingdao Key Laboratory of Circle Sea Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation Technology, Qingdao Shandong 266580, China;

    3. Engineering Researcher Center, CRRC Qingdao Sifang Co., Ltd., Qingdao Shandong 266000, China;

    4. Huabei Sales Department, Sinopec Gas Company, Qingdao Shandong 266400, China

  • Received:2016-12-23 Revised:2017-01-04 Online:2017-04-20 Published:2017-05-05

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摘要：         针对复杂输油管道压力异常波动事故频发,防控措施效果不理想的现状,应用图论中的故障树分析方法演绎压力异常波动的诱导机制,首次提出并建立了复杂输油管道压力异常波动的故障树模型。以某进口原油管道为例,运用德尔菲法和模糊数学理论求解模型,定性分析与定量计算的结果与工程实际相吻合。运用K 均值聚类方法分析典型基本事件的三个重要度,提出了管网压力异常波动的三元决策树结构,为波动事件的分析和防控措施的优化提供了理论依据。以压力异常波动为切入点,在历史数据不完备条件下,为大型复杂输油管道运行安全与完整性管理领域的研究提供了一种新的思路。

关键词: 复杂输油管道, 压力波动, 故障树, 模糊数学, 决策树

Abstract:

        Given the frequent accidents attributed to abnormal pressure fluctuation and the less effectiveness of preventive measures of complex pipe network, the FTA method of graph theory was applied to solve this problem. Induced mechanism of abnormal pressure fluctuations was interpreted and the FTA model of pressure abnormal fluctuations in complex pipeline network was firstly proposed and established in this paper. An imported crude oil pipe network was taken as a case study by using the Delphi method and fuzzy mathematics theory to solve the model. Results agree well with the actual statistics. Then K-means clustering method was carried on to analyze the three importance of typical basic events and the three-tier structure of the abnormal fluctuations is proposed using the DTA method, which lies a theoretical basis for the analysis on abnormal events as well as the optimization of the prevention and control measures. This paper mainly offers a new research idea in the field of operation security and integrity management of the large, complex pipe network especially when the historical data is far from complete.

Key words: Complexpipenetwork, Pressurefluctuation, FTA;Fuzzysets, DTA



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