Abstract:

Gasifier is the main equipment of CWS gasification system. In order to study the influence of gasifier failure on gasification system, a dynamic risk assessment method based on dynamic Bayesian network and risk matrix is proposed in this paper. Taking the gasifier failure as an example, the dynamic Bayesian network model of the gasifier was first established, and the prior probability of the root node event was calculated by combining the fuzzy evaluation method, and the dynamic Bayesian network was introduced to calculate the posterior probability. Then, based on the principle of analytic hierarchy process (ahp) and Borda, a comprehensive risk assessment for gasifier failure was established, and maintenance factors were introduced to predict the risk trend of the gasifier after maintenance and draw a dynamic risk matrix. The results show that the risk of the system decreases after the maintenance factor is introduced, which proves that the maintenance factor has a positive effect on the system and guarantees the production capacity of the system

Key words: Dynamic Bayesian network, Risk matrix, Gasifier, Dynamic risk assessment

摘要：

气化炉是水煤浆气化系统的主要设备，为研究气化炉故障对气化系统的影响，提出一种基于动态贝叶斯网络与风险矩阵相结合的动态风险评估方法。以气化炉故障为例，首先建立了气化炉的动态贝叶斯网络模型，结合模糊评价方法计算根节点事件的先验概率，引入动态贝叶斯网络推算其后验概率；随后，基于层次分析法和Borda的原理，建立气化炉故障的综合风险评估体系，并引入维修因素，预测维修后气化炉的风险趋势并绘制了动态风险矩阵。结果表明，引入维修因素后系统整体风险水平显著下降，证明了维修因素对系统的积极作用，保障了系统的生产能力。

关键词: 动态贝叶斯网络, 风险矩阵, 气化炉, 动态风险评估