关键词: GO法, 动态贝叶斯网, 冗余系统, 可靠性分析

Abstract: In order to obtain the dynamic change law of reliability of redundant repairable system under the influence of common cause failure, a new algorithm combining improved GO method with dynamic bayesian network was proposed. Firstly, the GO diagram model was established according to the schematic diagram and flow chart of the system. Then, the GO model was converted into a DBN by using the conversion mapping rules of each operator and signal flow to the DBN. Finally, the model was solved by using DBN mature software and algorithms. After verification and comparison, it can be seen that this method is not only able to obtain the dynamic curve of system reliability and availability changing with time, but also to treat the influence of maintenance factors and common cause failures on the analysis results. In additional, that this method with the powerful ability of reverse reasoning, is able to obtain the weak links quickly and provide reference the fault diagnosis for the system

Key words: GO method, Dynamic bayesian network, Redundant systems, Reliability analysis