关键词: 贝叶斯定理, 风险型决策, 先验概率, 后验概率, 期望值

Abstract: The four properties and the fundamental model of Bayes’s formula and the importance of solving problems were stated in risk decision. Two typical cases were enumerated, and they illustrated the effectiveness and good results of Bayes theorem in the application process|the drawing and operation process of decision tree method were explained in detail.

Key words: Bayes theorem, Risk type decision, Prior probability, Posterior probability, Expected value